A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
